Usmanov is chasing Arsenal again and this time GOA is listening….

GOA has always been a staunch supporter of Kroenke and not because he was American, that was just sort of a bonus fun fact. GOA believed, and still believes, that Arsenal must modernize their organization in order to survive at the top of the elite -namely improving the commercialization and organizational aspects of the Club, which were woefully antiquated. New ownership though, cough cough ManCiteh and PSG, have changed the game.

Rumors are that Usmanov is out and about again, trying to find the shares needed to force a take over.  Don’t cry for Silent Stan though, if it goes through, Stan will make a killing at the price Usmanov will pay.  Nonetheless, GOA, clearly, has been on Kroenke’s side for the last couple of years. Stability and tradition, we said.  Arsenal are doing fine and on the up and up we felt.  Fast forward two more years and two things have begun to make us wonder differently: (1) the new PSG, and (2) Nasri’s move North.

Long-time GOA readers need not worry, the sad start of the season isn’t the cause of the change.  GOA doesn’t scare that easy. Nope. It’s the system that is pushing GOA over the line.  Football, like everything else, now lives in “Google Time.”  The times change and they change fast.

Footie fabulousness

For years, football fans have followed the ridicuous “accounting” procedures at Real Madrid and Barca out of fascination. One the one hand, it was in Spain, so at least the other teams had a chance at the CL. And, Real, at least, lived up to the hype by purchasing every big name player there was. So, whether you were a fan of Real, or not, one at least appreciated the soap opera that ensued. In Barca’s case, they engineered a new style of play that was pretty to watch. As fans, we looked to Italy for booms, busts and fabulousness too; and, lets be honest, Serie A didn’t disappoint.

The Premier League, however, suffers from too much competition and just plain nonsense. Having Chelsea and ManCiteh, means that two teams can compete for any player in the world. Even Barca, Juve, AC, and Inter have limits. As a result, these two Clubs essentially locked up two of the four positions for the CL. This leaves other teams, including ManU and Arsenal, two of the world’s biggest Clubs fighting for two positions, oh, and don’t forget Liverpool and the wannabe Spuds bring up the rear.

The strangest thing is that ManCiteh is now a powerhouse. I mean really, ManCiteh???  Who…ever…would…have…thought?

Gooner whining?

Fair play, if Arsenal were one of the guaranteed spots I might not care as much. But that’s really the point isn’t it? Arsenal isn’t and I’m a Gooner. Worse yet, Arsenal played by the rules. The Club stays within a manageable salary range; the Club developed a stellar Academy; and, in the midst of transfer madness, Arsenal still respect other Clubs. But the facts might be more brutal: Arsenal can’t keep up. And Arsenal is one of the top grossing Clubs in the world (Top 10), if we can’t keep up, we have a problem.

Now we have PSG as the new biggest shark to enter the water. Fact is, Arsenal might just need to change. Blaming Wenger or the Board is irrelevant if the entire system is aligned against you.

I’m confident that Kroenke can introduce new measures and techniques to modernize Arsenal and increase revenues. But I’m not confident that Kroenke can do it fast enough.

This isn’t a question of whether he has the money. It’s a question of whether he wants to treat Arsenal like a crown jewel or an investment. Kroenke’s an investor, he’s stable, and adds value. As a fan of the game, I love that. He makes money the Club develops, all is well.

Unfortunately, PSG, ManCiteh, Chelsea, Barcelona, and even the Italian Triad (AC, Juve, and Inter) don’t play that game. If Arsenal were in any other league this wouldn’t matter. But having two sharks plus ManU floating around means that Arsenal is at a severe disadvantage, at least for the short-term.  Worse yet, we can’t rely on the “regulator,” i.e. FIFA to do anything.  For all the talk, FIFA hasn’t done anything yet, the Fair Play Rules were designed to be evaded…oh, and Clubs spending big money is good for business…sigh.

Should Kroenke sell?

GOA hasn’t completely changed positions yet. Kroenke doesn’t need to sell yet. And, there is still hope for the squad to recover; the long-season and early collapse are in Arsenal’s favor. Arsenal are rebuilding and will get stronger as the season progresses -I honestly believe that. But the reality is that the Club cannot compete in salary bidding wars, or when any of these Clubs step in to raise the price of a player, and that does raise some concern for the long-term.  That’s where Usmanov obviously comes in.  For Usmanov, Arsenal is clearly a crown jewel for a billionaire.  That means money for increased wages; that means buying players the Club need now; it means, when Arsenal bid on a player, other Clubs can’t push us out with a bid of £1-2M because we know we can’t outbid them (something many Gooners don’t seem to understand).

The times, they are a changing, so GOA is listening…change or be left behind.

 

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Comments from Facebook

  • Biggy

    I applaud your sense of fairness in coming to terms with the fact that the big two have to be judged by what they are able and willing to do for Arsenal. Over the years we have become a selling club that would flog our best players to the highest bidder. This has rancor with me and others that I know for just as long. For one it eroded team spirit and identity and it weakened the team tremendously.
    A lot has been made of the fact that Usmanov demanded share dividends to be paid out. Apparently the board hate him for this. I would like to know more about this, not just a repetition of the statement. Does he still hold this view? If he wants to own the club outright … surely this cannot be the case?

  • Bonface

    the truth is kreoke is a businessman and out to make profit than to improve the squad but isamanov will invest in prayers n their salaries period

  • Foo

    Kroenke is a winner at the intersection of business and sport. Usmanov has no such track record. It certainly sounds like you’re backing the potential short-term quick fix without any evidence in support. I hope the Arsenal board are not quite that foolish.

    • Charles

      Lol. Thanks for the feedback.

      To be sure, I’m not backing anything. I’m posing the question: there is a real economic pressure that Arsenal and Gooners are facing and we need to think about it.

      I like Arsenal the way it is. Class is forever. :)

  • Nickw

    Forbes has Arsenal as the 3rd most valuable club in the world with the 5th highest revenue (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes'_list_of_the_most_valuable_football_clubs or http://www.therichest.org/sports/forbes-richest-football-teams/). Come on GOA do your homework! Furthermore, there are 40,000 people on the season ticket waiting list- this bodes well for the possible increase of the stadium to a 100,000 seater (http://www.arsenal.com/membership/need-help-/-contact-us/season-ticket-waiting-list).

    The thing that you have glossed over here is that 2 of the models employed in world football be it a billionaire benefactors or bank financed debt are both unsustainable whether UEFA (and not FIFA) start playing fair by the financial rules or not. Chelsea is a case in point- throwing money at something only brings short term “success”. For goodness sake they can’t even fill their 30,000 seater stadium every week and they are supposedly in the most affluent area of London!

    Those clubs that are debt laden will eventually burst akin to the economic downturn experienced either side of the Atlantic. Compounding debt upon debt only serves to create additional debt. (http://soccerlens.com/the-football-debt-league-top-10-most-indebted-clubs/50035/)- note Arsenal’s debt is almost entirely as a result of the stadium i.e. good debt!

    I used to take a bit of pride in the fact that until recently Arsenal was the only top 4 team to have had a majority English ownership. Now that that has changed I am less worried about who is heading the club as long as they add value. I am up for Usmanov should he add value but, not if he is going to throw large wads of cash like it’s his own little hobby craft- again Chelski a case in point and i’m pretty sure Man Shitty sooner or later… in the last 2 seasons they have made losses of over GBP220mil (http://annualreport.mcfc.co.uk/reports.htm#open) almost akin to the total outstanding debt of the Emirates. With a bit of time our academy will start ticking over like those of Ajax and Barcelona and we won’t have to invest heavily in players- what team is not envious of Ramsey, Walcott, WIlshere, Frimpong, etc…

    Once the debt is cleared we can start paying these young stars the money that will keep them at the club! We will be world beaters by that stage =)

    • Charles

      Love the feedback! But I think you might have missed my point a little, or maybe I just wasn’t clear enough. So I thought I’d respond.

      1. “Forbes has Arsenal as the 3rd most valuable club in the world with the 5th highest revenue (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbes'_list_of_the_most_valuable_football_clubs or http://www.therichest.org/sports/forbes-richest-football-teams/). Come on GOA do your homework!

      I would go back and look at the very link you sent. If you look past the first line (Current Value) and go to Revenue, you’ll notice, Arsenal are $60M behind Bayern. The SwissRambler has done some really good work on this. But I’ve also posted about the tiers in the Top Clubs.

      For the purposes of this article, and transfers and wages, the key factor is the revenue. Arsenal operate under a strict revenue/cost model (which I applaud). So being ranked 3rd in value is almost irrelevant if you can’t actually pay people. It’s like owning a home that has appreciated in value because of your location, but your job (i.e. income) has not increased.

      2. “The thing that you have glossed over here is that 2 of the models employed in world football be it a billionaire benefactors or bank financed debt…

      I’m not glossing over this; quite the contrary, that’s underlying the challenge: those models pose serious challenges to Arsenal, hence the pressure for Arsenal to adopt a similar model. Agreed, the models are not sustainable, but do you see them going away soon? Is Eden Hazard going to Arsenal or Chelsea?

      I do agree that once the debt is cleared we can start paying more money. That’s the plan. The question is: will Arsenal be able to survive the increasing pressure.

      Thanks for reading and the thoughtful response. Really appreciate it.